BMO Capital Markets has upgraded MP Materials to Outperform, arguing that a recent pullback in rare earth prices—along with a decline in the company’s share price—creates an attractive entry point for a business it views as central to U.S. efforts to develop a domestic rare earths supply chain. The firm set a price target of $75.
Analysts noted that rare earth valuations have eased following China’s rollback of export restrictions and a cooling of geopolitical tensions with the United States. However, they emphasized that this does not diminish the long-term investment case. Instead, the recent trade dispute highlighted the structural vulnerability of U.S. access to critical minerals.
BMO said it expects U.S. onshoring and supply-chain security initiatives to remain intact regardless of the latest diplomatic thaw.
A key source of future upside, according to the bank, is MP’s joint venture in Saudi Arabia with Ma’aden and The DoW. BMO’s models forecast the partnership producing roughly 2,000 tonnes of NdPr oxide annually beginning in 2028, with The DoW covering MP’s share of development costs. Combined with the recent share-price weakness, this contribution supports a valuation rerating, analysts said.
Execution will now be a central focus. BMO highlighted the ramp-up at the company’s Independence facility as an important milestone, noting that successful delivery could help drive multiple expansion.
The analysts also pointed to additional potential earnings contributions from Apple-related recycling volumes, as well as new offtake agreements that may secure more favorable pricing than the company’s current arrangement with The DoW.
BMO concluded that MP’s strategically significant assets warrant a premium relative to peers and that the company remains in the early stages of a long-term investment theme tied to securing U.S. supplies of crucial minerals.
